Over the last two weeks, we've been asking for your views on what you think should be included within the budget. 938 people responded - thank you to those who did.
Commenting on the results, Executive Director of Conservative Progress Luke Springthorpe said "It's clear that there is a high level of support from Conservative supporters for an increase in investment in public services in this budget. This is applicable both to members and first time Conservative voters from 2019 but is especially pronounced with first time Conservatives from 2019.
However, whilst there is an apparent acceptance of the need for taxes to increase in order to fund this spending, there is clear divergence on what kind of taxes should increase. There is strong support for an online sales tax, mansion tax and even additional duty on alcohol on cigarettes. However, there is almost no support for increasing fuel duty which. This is easy to understand when so many communities outside of major cities are almost entirely reliant on car travel to get to and from work.
There is also support for a clean Brexit trade agreement, with 68.3% of respondents unprepared to accept any alignment on regulations. There is also strong support for state aid and an industrial strategy, both of which will require a clean break from EU rules and regulations to be implemented fully.
It's a clear sign of a shifting Conservative base and if reports are to be believed, it appears the Budget will be broadly in step with what Conservative voters want."
First we asked what respondents thought the chancellor's priorities should be in the budget. It's clear that there is support for additional spending in this budget. 36.4% said that they would like to see an increase in spending on infrastructure which creates jobs. 21.9% said that they would like to see an increase in spending on public services. Only 20.6% said that they would like to see taxes cut whilst reducing the deficit and balancing the books was only the priority for 10.6%.
We then asked whether they would support an increase in taxation in order to see an increase in public spending on infrastructure. 26.1% said yes, as opposed to 39.1% who said no. Interestingly, when we asked if you would support an increase in taxation in order to see an increase in public spending on the NHS, police and schools, 40.6% said that they would with 36.5% saying they wouldn't.
Of the respondents who were first time Conservative voters in 2019, 44.3% said yes to an increase in taxation in order to see additional spending on the NHS, schools and police, with 30.3% disagreeing. Clearly investing in public services is going to be critical in winning over the long term support of these first time Conservative voters for future elections.
We then delved a little deeper and asked which taxes respondents would support a rise. The results were quite surprising, with 29.6% backing a rise in the mansion tax and 26.9% supporting a rise in duty on alcohol and tobacco. 16.3% took a stand and said that they did not want to see any increase in taxation. Increasing fuel duty was particularly unpopular, with only 1.1% of respondents supporting an increase.
The most popular option amongst first-time Conservative voters in 2019 was the mansion tax, with 44.22% supporting a rise. The next most popular, polling at 22.7%, was a rise on tobacco and alcohol duty.
We next asked what tax they would most like to see cut. 58.1% said that they would like to see a rise in the personal allowance, to cut income tax for the lower-earning. 11.9% wanted to see a reduction in inheritance tax and 11.2% wanted the same for stamp duty. Only 7.3% supported a reduction in tax for higher earners.
Next we asked whether respondents thought that the wealthy pay their fair share in taxation. 35.6% said that they did, with 27.6% having the alternative view.
However, when asked in they thought multinational corporations pay their fair share of tax, we got what must be one of the most one-sided results we've ever had. 8.7% said that they thought multinational businesses pay their fair share, with a massive 80% saying that they do not pay their fair share with the amount of tax they pay.
This figure was even higher among of first-time Conservative voters in 2019, with 85% of these voters not believing that multinational businesses pay their fair share of tax.
Very interestingly, we were able to filter down where the 26.7% of respondents who were 2019 first-time voters came from and who they used to vote for. 37.8% switched from voting for Labour. 62.2% switched from voting for the Brexit Party/UKIP.
Make of this what you will, but such a high switch rate from the other main party is big news. Combine that with the clear trust placed in Boris and the Conservatives from the Eurosceptic voters from UKIP and the Brexit Party, there is a clear mandate not just for the budget, but for the wider agenda of investment and 'levelling up' regional economies.
YOU CAN READ THE FULL FINDINGS BELOW:
ABOUT THE RESPONDENTS
Under 18: 0.4%
Over 65: 45%
Which of the following best describes you
A Conservative supporter but not a party member: 54.4% A Conservative party member: 41.1% A local association officer for the Conservative Party: 2.4% A Conservative Councillor: 1.6% A former Parliamentary candidate for the Conservative Party: 0.5%
Did you vote Conservative in the 2019 election?
Yes, but it was my first time voting Conservative (normally Labour): 10.1%
Yes, but it was my first time voting Conservative (Normally UKIP/Brexit Party): 16.6%
Yes, I always vote Conservative: 67.4%
Where in the UK do you live?
South East England: 17.5%
South West England: 12.6%
East of England: 6.6%
West Midlands: 8.7%
East Midlands: 9.9%
North East England: 6%
North West England: 9.5%
Northern Ireland: 0.8%
Are you a member of the Conservative Party? Yes: 54.3%
FINDINGS What do you believe the priority should be for the Chancellor in the upcoming budget?
Cutting taxes: 20.6%
Reducing the deficit & balancing the budget: 10.4%
Increasing spending on infrastructure projects that create jobs: 36.4%
Increasing spending on public services: 21.9%
Would you support an increase in taxation in order to fund infrastructure spending?
Would you support an increase in taxation in order to provide additional public spending on the NHS, police and schools?
If taxes have to rise to fund additional spending, which of the following tax rises would you be most likely to support? Additional tax on tobacco & alcohol: 26.9%
Additional tax on fuel: 1.1%
Removing higher rate tax relief on pension contributions: 11.9%
An extra tax on large homes worth over £2m (mansion tax): 29.6%
Expanding inheritance tax to include business assets: 4.4%
None: I do not think spending should increase & do not support tax increases: 16.3%
Do you believe that wealthy individuals in the UK currently pay their fair share of tax?
Do you believe that large multi-national businesses that trade in the UK pay their fair share of tax?
Do you support an online sales tax to ensure that online retailers do not have an unfair advantage over high street shops?
Do you believe that the UK government should offer state aid for key strategic industries in order to support jobs after Brexit?
Would you be willing to adopt some EU regulations for certain industries, such as car manufacturing and financial services, in order to protect jobs?
Which one of the following issues is most important to you to be prioritised in the upcoming Budget?
Support for first time buyers getting on the housing ladder: 2.6% Building more affordable housing: 5% Supporting more well paying jobs & protecting jobs: 3.8% Cutting taxes: 11.2% More funding for the NHS: 8.7% An industrial strategy that creates & supports jobs across the country, not just London: 32.5%
More funding for the police & a tough approach to crime: 22% More funding for schools and smaller class sizes: 1.4% Reducing student debt: 0.2% Tackling climate change: 1.7% Addressing adult social care: 10.8%
Which tax would you most like to see reduced in the Budget?
Income tax payable by lower earners, by raising the personal allowance: 58.1%
Income tax payable by higher earners, by raising the 40% threshold: 7.3%
Inheritance tax: 11.9%
Stamp duty on property: 11.2%
Capital gains tax: 2.3%
Dividend tax: 1.5%
MAIN FINDINGS OF NOTE FOR 2019 FIRST TIME CONSERVATIVE VOTERS:
-High support for an increase in taxation to fund additional spending on NHS, police and schools: (Yes = 44.3%, No= 30.3%, Maybe = 23.9%, Unsure = 1.2%)
-Most popular tax to increase was tax on large homes worth over £2m (44.22%) followed by additional tax on tobacco & alcohol (22.7%)
-The majority do not think that multi-national corporations pay their fair share of tax: (85%)
-Their top 4 priorities for the budget:
An industrial strategy that creates & supports jobs across the country, not just London: 36.7%
More funding for the police: 23.1%
Addressing adult social care: 10%
Additional funding for the NHS: 9.2%
Cutting taxes was only the priority for 7.6%
-A large majority want a 'clean Brexit' trade deal, with 77.29% saying 'No' when asked if they would be willing to see the UK adopt some EU regulations for certain industries in order to protect jobs.
-They want to see the introduction of state aid for key strategic industries in order to support jobs after Brexit with 77.3% of respondents answering 'yes' when asked if they would support this.
-37.8% of the first time Tory voters normally voted Labour. The other 62.2% normally voted Brexit Party/UKIP
PRESS AND MEDIA ENQUIRIES TO: Luke@conservativeprogress.co.uk
Jack Rydeheard, Editor for Conservative Progress