The Brexit Party could well be an unanticipated blessing

The Brexit Party has chosen to stand candidates in every British constituency, striking fear into the hearts of Conservatives up and down the country. But is this fear justified?


We're fast approaching the date for confirming nominations, and still there is no deal between the only two pro-Brexit parties in the UK despite a very clear referendum result. The Conservatives have chosen not to engage with Farage's offer and the Brexit Party have chosen to stand firm in giving everyone in Great Britain the chance to elect a representative for their version of a so-called pure Brexit.


This has instilled a sense of dread into Conservatives across the country, but is this impending feeling of worry justified?


The parties' own polling suggests a mixed bag.


Up North, which is where I reside, polling suggests that the Conservatives are set to clean up in previously shaky areas, like Bury South, as well as in the Midlands in places like Mansfield.


The problem is going to be in marginally and heavily pro-Remain, Southern constituencies, like Hammersmith and Fulham, where Greg Hands faces a battle to hang onto his seat.


As we saw following 2015, Farage's then-party UKIP hoovered up votes at a rate of knots, gaining four million and yet only one MP. This was due to the location of their votes, and the lack of concentration of votes for UKIP.


There is no reason why the Brexit Party will not do the same in the North.


With Labour losing ground heavily in leave-voting, Northern constituencies, the Brexit Party are fielding candidates to do what no other party seems to be able to do - collect the Labour Leave vote. These are voters who voted to Leave the EU, but could not ideologically bring themselves to vote Conservative.


When UKIP collapsed in the 2017 election, their votes dispersed wildly back to different parties; mainly Labour. Despite Labour quite obviously manoeuvring to back a second referendum in time, Leavers on the Left found that they could not abandon their basic principles on non-Brexit issues. This is perfectly understandable, and should have been anticipated.


Going off what happened in 2017 and back in 2015; the Brexit Party in the North look set to hurt Labour a lot more than the Conservatives.


With Labour's unclear second referendum stance, the Lib Dems' policy to revoke and the Brexit Party's policy to oppose Boris' plan whilst delivering Brexit, there seems only one home for Conservative voters.


There are many other options for Leavers on the left.


The South are much more at risk than the North from a lack of a pact, but this could yet pave the way for a very successful election.


Jack Rydeheard, Editor of the Conservative on Sunday for Conservative Progress